Today across the trailheads
Right now: 0 go, 6 caution across 6 monitored trailheads. Nothing stopped, but someone out there needs a rain shell and patience.
- Lukla — caution, now 11°C (feels 10°), wind 1 kph, wettest day 09-14 at 100% rain.
- Namche Bazaar — caution, now 6°C (feels 5°), wind 2 kph, wettest day 09-14 at 100% rain.
- Everest Base Camp — caution, now -22°C (feels -27°), wind 4 kph, wettest day 09-14 at 47% rain.
- Pokhara — caution, now 22°C (feels 26°), wind 1 kph, wettest day 09-14 at 100% rain.
- Jomsom — caution, now 16°C (feels 16°), wind 3 kph, wettest day 09-14 at 90% rain.
- Manang — caution, now 11°C (feels 10°), wind 2 kph, wettest day 09-14 at 100% rain.
What the verdicts actually mean
Every trailhead gets one plain word, computed from the same four ingredients: temperature, rain odds, snow codes and wind. Fly / walk is normal mountain weather — layers, sunscreen, go. Caution fires on rain-likely skies, drizzle codes, breezy-to-strong wind or punishing cold: still trekable, but with waterproofs on, buffer days in hand, and no summit fever. Wait means snow or storm — passes disappear, Lukla stops flying, and the mountain is telling you to drink tea and try tomorrow. The verdict is a starting point, not permission: a local guide reading the actual sky overrules any forecast, including this one.
Lukla flights, honestly
The most stressful weather decision in Nepali trekking isn't on the trail — it's the 35-minute flight to Lukla, which needs a clear window both in Kathmandu (or Ramechhap, where most flights now leave from in season) and in the mountains. Mornings are calmest; by afternoon the clouds build and the window shuts. That's why the oldest advice in the Khumbu is also the best: put a buffer day in Kathmandu at the start, and never book your international flight home for the evening you walk out. The Lukla verdict above tracks visibility and wind — the two things that actually cancel planes — but the captain's call at the airstrip is final.
Seasons in one paragraph
October–November is the postcard season: washed-clean air after monsoon, stable weather, teahouses full — book beds ahead on Everest and Annapurna. March–May brings rhododendron forests and building haze, a worthy second choice. June–September is monsoon: rain, leeches, hidden peaks, delayed flights — but empty trails, green everything, and rain-shadow Mustang and Dolpo at their best. December–February is crystal and brutal: glorious views, passes that may simply be closed, nights that punish cheap gear. Pick your suffering; every season has one.
Altitude and packing sense
Two numbers rule everything above 3,000 metres: it gets about 6°C colder per kilometre you climb, and nights run 10–15°C below the afternoon you just enjoyed. Pack for the night you'll sleep, not the afternoon you'll photograph. Ascend gradually, drink more water than feels necessary, and treat headache-plus-nausea above 3,500m as the mountain telling you to stop — descend if it worsens, no summit is worth arguing with altitude sickness. A down jacket, a real rain shell, and broken-in boots beat every gadget ever marketed to trekkers.
Quick answers
- What do Fly / Walk, Caution and Wait mean?
- They are this page's plain-words call per trailhead. Fly / walk means normal mountain weather — go. Caution means rain, strong wind, drizzle or extreme cold is likely — go only prepared, with buffer days. Wait means snow or storm conditions — stay put. They come from temperature, rain odds, snow codes and wind, refreshed with every forecast.
- Will my Lukla flight take off?
- Lukla lives or dies on visibility and wind in a short morning window — this page's Lukla verdict tracks exactly those ingredients. But airlines make the final call at the airport, and mountain weather turns in an hour. Always keep one buffer day in Kathmandu; unmissable international flights the same evening are how trekkers get stranded stories.
- When is the best season for trekking in Nepal?
- Mid-October to November: clear skies, stable air, the classic post-monsoon window — and the busiest trails. March to May is second best, with rhododendrons and haze. June to September is monsoon (wet, leechy, but lush and empty); December to February is crisp but bitterly cold above 4,000m.
- Can I trek during monsoon?
- You can, with eyes open: rain, clouds hiding the peaks, slippery trails and delayed Lukla flights. It suits Mustang and Dolpo, which sit in rain shadow. Right now Lukla shows up to 100% rain odds — proper rain-shadow reasoning required.
- How cold does it get on these trails?
- The coldest night in this week's outlook is -25°C at Everest Base Camp — and the EBC grid cell sits near the summit, so expect summit-grade cold there. The golden rule: it is always 10–15 degrees colder than the daytime high suggests once the sun drops, so pack for the night, not the afternoon.
- How should I use this forecast on the trail?
- Check it the evening before and the morning of — mountain forecasts are trustworthy for about 48 hours and guesswork beyond that. If two consecutive days show Caution or worse, add a rest day in a teahouse village rather than pushing a pass. And no forecast replaces a guide's eyes on the actual sky.